Pitt mailbag: Do the Panthers have a realistic path to the College Football Playoff?

Stephen Thompson and Christopher Carter / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Welcome to the Pitt mailbag. If you have any questions about the Panthers, send them to Christopher Carter and Stephen Thompson, and they may answer them in their weekly show. You can catch the full version on YouTube, with an edited transcript below:

Connor: Could a College Football Playoff appearance for Pitt launch them into a tier of “annual contenders,” teams that probably won't win or even make the playoff every year, but will always be in the mix. What's kind of impact could that have on the program?

Stephen Thompson: I don't think it would be a playoff appearance would change the trajectory for Pitt football — part of that “trajectory change” has already been in the works. As you and I were walking out of the stadium on Saturday night, I thought for a minute about, the past four seasons and, while 2023 was a bad year, it looks like 2024 is headed toward another really good year. Pitt could have three of its last four seasons end with it ranked in the top 25, and then you look at who they're able to bring back on both sides of the ball, you have to believe that 2025 could be even better. A College Football Playoff appearance this year would be more symptomatic of what they're building and a sign that they’ve already arrived in that tier of “annual contenders,” a pool that is much bigger now than it was for the four-team playoff.

Christopher Carter: Pitt puts itself in this range that if they make the College Football Playoff and it becomes something that you can put in the mind of every Pitt recruit that you talk to — ‘Hey, we had a shot at the national title last year,’ which that hasn't been a conversation for Pitt fans in forever. And Stephen, and even beyond just Pitt, we were talking about this while we watched college football games Saturday night — I'm not sure that there's a team out there that is completely indomitable and is the runaway favorite to win the national title. There's a lot of weaknesses that are poking out, and if the right team catches some of these top-10 teams at the right time, they’ll go down.

I'm not saying Pitt's going to win the national championship, but I'm saying that this might be the best chance ever for a team that's not Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Georgia, etc., to go and win the national title this year. And let's say Pitt wins even just one playoff game, the fever that would be around this town would change everything. It would give a supercharge to the fanbase and say, ‘Hey, you know what? What if you get this team some more dogs? What if you invest more into this team to get more resources for the players in NIL?’ Certainly there's a lot of potential there for Pitt to be one of those teams that's considered a perennial contender, and that would be the most national attention Pitt football's gotten in a long time.

Adam: Not even a single top 25 vote for Pitt men's basketball in the preseason, but Pitt fans are talking potential Sweet 16. Who will be proven right by seasons end?

Carter: Stephen, you're one of those voters, buddy. Why didn't you rank Pitt? Do you hate them?

Thompson: I don't hate Pitt. There are a lot of teams that could be deserving of one of those spots in the top 25. Not earning a top-25 vote in the preseason doesn’t mean that you are automatically going to be a bad team. The other thing is this doesn't have an impact on NCAA tournament seating at all. In a lot of ways, the AP poll is largely meaningless as you go through the season. Both sides of what Adam asks can be right. Both you and I agree that this Pitt team can be pretty good. It has a ton of potential as long as the pieces fit together on the court.

I also do believe that the local perception of this team is higher than the external perception for no other reason than the fact that Bub Carrington and Blake Hinson are now in the NBA. Those are two very public moves that a lot of voters saw. So if you're not paying attention to the minutiae of how Pitt filled out the rest of its roster and what Jaland Lowe did in the second half, you're probably not going to have a super high opinion of this Pitt team. It's understandable, but not getting a vote keeps a lid on their potential at all.

Carter: If you look back every year, there are teams that were that weren't ranked that made a big run that did a lot of damage, then earned a lot of respect throughout the year. Pitt is very much a young team, but young with a lot of promise. Jaland Lowe is among those guys. They got new pieces in there like Amsal Delalic, who they're expecting to get back from injury very soon. Cam Corhen could be a formidable piece in the paint. And then you still have Ishmael Leggett, the Diaz-Graham twins, Zach Austin, Papa Kante, Brandin Cummings, too. There's a lot of young guys on this team that have a lot of upside, but because of that, they're not going to get ranked early. But you know what? By the end of the season, there's going to be a different conversation because this Pitt team can do a lot of damage this year.

Chaz: Have defenses figured Eli Holstein out? Saturday was his worst game yet?

Carter: It's tough to say defenses have figured him out. Holstein even admitted that he didn't stick to his reads. And if you're a defense, that’s what you want to do is try to take away his first read and force him to look long. One thing I noted about Kade Bell’s offense is that somebody's always open. There's always a chance. And if you just work through your progressions, you'll find that guy somewhere. That's what Eli Holstein didn't do against Cal a whole lot. He was going to his first read and then going to his deep read. And then he was trying to make a play with his legs. Holstein still isn't seeing the whole field and, look, he's not going to see the whole field right away. It takes a lot of time to develop that kind of field presence. But if he eventually develops the ability to do that, I don't think there will be a way to figure him out if you're opposing defenses.

Thompson: It seems like only a bump in the road to me. Cal leads the country in interceptions. They've been doing this to a lot of quarterbacks that are more experienced than Eli Holstein. It’s not something that is possible for teams to replicate over and over again as they go down the rest of the season. Holstein is going to have a bad game again, but maybe for different reasons. So he's got some growing to do, certainly, but I don't believe that this kind of defensive performance from Cal, which has really great, experienced athletes on the back end and a really good defensive head coach in Justin Wilcox, is something that opposing teams are going to be able to do routinely week-in, week-out.

And the other thing is Eli Holstein is going to get better. Kade Bell clearly has some chops as not just a play caller, but a quarterbacks coach, as well. And when you're dealing with a true freshman, you can't control him with an Xbox controller out there. You’ve got to go let him be Eli Holstein and make mistakes that come with all the great things he can do off-schedule. You just have to find a way for him to strike that balance between aggression, looking for those deep plays and those big splash plays, but also surviving down-to-down and keeping his offense on schedule.

Bernie: Was what Pitt’s defense did against Cal sustainable or is Cal just that bad?

Carter: I'm not saying that Pitt figured it out, but I do think Pitt's taking a step forward. We've seen the play of the linebackers take off. We've seen Pitt's safeties play really well. I also think their corners are playing really well. The biggest thing about the group was, could the defensive line come along? And the addition of Sean FitzSimmons has helped them get there. Pitt's defense can kind of get back to the way that it plays when Pat Narduzzi's teams are at their best. Under Narduzzi, those units have never been completely dominant to the point where it shuts everyone out all the time. But what Pitt's defense does is put pressure on you, get after your quarterback, create turnovers, force you to win in ways that you don't usually want to win. Cal's offense certainly didn't have its best day, but Pitt was a big reason for that happening. So to answer your question, Bernie, I see Pitt's defense trending upward, and we still haven't seen the best of it.

Thompson: I say 11 tackles for loss and six sacks are not sustainable, but I could not agree with you more about the addition of Sean FitzSimmons. I mean, that is a top-line defensive tackle, probably Pitt's best defensive tackle that missed the first four weeks of the year. And then you saw what he was able to do against North Carolina, put a little bit more pressure on the Tar Heels in that game, and then wreaking some havoc against Cal, as well, and holding their running game in check.

Pitt did a lot of really great things at every level against Cal. It wasn't just the defensive line getting some pressure, but these defensive backs being able to string out plays on runs to the edge when Cal was trying to use their speed against them and the corners covering really well. Like you said, the corners have been dramatically improved, and then these linebackers have been great all year. So I see steps forward every week. This unit has gotten better. So when you look at the box score, maybe some of these numbers aren't replicable, but for the Pitt defense, I'm much more confident in what they're able to do than I was, say, after Kent State, certainly, but after Cincinnati and West Virginia, as well.