Oliver Bateman: Southwestern Pennsylvania may give Donald Trump the presidency

Oliver Bateman / Special to the Post-Gazette

While national attention fixates on Philadelphia's vote-rich suburbs, a quieter yet potentially far more decisive transformation is unfolding in the communities surrounding Pittsburgh. This shift in southwestern Pennsylvania's political landscape could provide Republicans with the slim margin needed to flip the Keystone State in 2024.

The focus lies on subdivision-spawned places like Cranberry Township to the north, the bedroom communities of southern Butler County, and the once-solid Rust Belt Democrat precincts of Washington County to the south. These areas, many of which have been reliable parts of the Democratic coalition since the New Deal, are trending Republican in ways that should alarm party strategists.

From Democrat to Republican

The numbers paint a stark picture of this evolution. In 2000, Democrats carried Allegheny County and the seven surrounding counties by nearly 86,000 votes. By 2020, despite massive Democratic gains within Pittsburgh city limits, this same region swung to the Republicans by 38,000 votes. In a state decided by razor-thin margins in recent presidential contests, this 124,000-vote swing is seismic.

Cranberry Township exemplifies this change. Once a sleepy rural community, it’s now a booming strip mall and chain eatery-lined suburb of over 30,000 people, more than 90% of whom are white, with a decidedly Republican lean. In 2020, Donald Trump carried Cranberry with over 60% of the vote, a margin unthinkable just a few decades ago when union-affiliated Democratic voters dominated the region.

The transformation is even more pronounced in Washington County, once the very definition of a union stronghold. Trump won the county by a staggering 22-point margin in 2020. This shift extends beyond presidential politics, with local government seeing an influx of MAGA-aligned officials, turning county commission meetings into shouting matches on a par with pro wrestling interviews.

Multiple factors drive this realignment. Demographic changes play a significant role, as working-class white voters migrate to the suburbs and exurbs, taking increasingly Republican voting habits with them. This pattern mirrors nationwide trends but is particularly pronounced in the Pittsburgh region due to the stark economic and cultural contrasts between the urban core — heavily dependent on white-collar work and “e-mail jobs” — and the surrounding areas.

The fracking boom has also reshaped Western Pennsylvania’s political and economic landscape. In Washington, Greene, and Fayette counties, the natural gas industry has created thousands of high-paying blue-collar jobs. Many of these workers view Democrats as hostile to their livelihoods, perceiving a party increasingly aligned with environmental activists and urban progressives.

Democratic Catch-22

This perception extends to union households, once the bedrock of Democratic support in the region. Many union members — particularly those in the building trades and energy sector — have become reliable Republican voters, attracted by the GOP’s embrace of protectionist trade policies and support for fossil fuel industries.

Closer-in suburbs like Mt. Lebanon and Upper St. Clair remain competitive, while further-flung communities have lurched decisively rightward. This pattern creates a sort of “donut effect” around Pittsburgh: a deep blue urban core, ringed by light blue inner suburbs, surrounded by increasingly red exurbs and rural areas, particularly north of the city. It’s a microcosm of America's political geography, compressed into a single metro area.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh itself faces challenges that could dampen Democratic enthusiasm. The city’s recent population loss, shrinking and arguably failing public schools, and economic uncertainties could depress turnout among key constituencies. Republicans don’t need to win these disaffected urban voters outright; they just need enough to stay home on Election Day to tip the scales in a close election.

Democrats aren’t oblivious to the danger. Recent visits by high-ranking officials have emphasized support for the energy industry and kitchen-table economic issues. However, these efforts may be too little, too late. The party’s leftward drift on social issues and embrace of aggressive climate policies have alienated many suburban and rural voters who once saw Democrats as the party of the working class.

Ironically, Pittsburgh’s political realignment is partly a product of its own renaissance. The influx of progressive young professionals — a fair number of whom are childless carpetbaggers drawn to the eds-and-meds world who have thrown urban property values far out of whack — has dominated city politics but also set in motion suburban demographic shifts that benefit Republicans. This creates a catch-22 for Democrats: policies that energize their urban base often alienate suburban and rural voters.

A small decisive shift

Even a small shift in the Pittsburgh suburbs could be decisive. In both 2016 and 2020, the state was decided by less than 1% of the vote. The political evolution of places like Cranberry Township and Washington might seem inconsequential in isolation, but taken together, these suburban shifts could determine who sits in the Oval Office.

The question now is whether Kamala Harris, pilloried in round-the-clock attack advertisements for her pragmatic position changes, can address this reality in time to shape the outcome.

Oliver Bateman is a historian and journalist based in Pittsburgh. He blogs, vlogs, and podcasts at his Substack, Oliver Bateman Does the Work.