Steelers-Jets scouting report: Aaron Rodgers and his receivers present a problem

Brian Batko / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Steelers insider Brian Batko breaks down each aspect of the Week 7 game vs. the Jets and lists the team’s keys to victory:

When the Steelers have the ball

Jets defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich is also wearing the interim head coach hat now, but he’s running the fired Robert Saleh’s defense. Their average depth of target of 9.8 yards, second-highest in the league, is an indication opposing offenses have tried to threaten them downfield. But they’re allowing just 148.8 passing yards, second-lowest in the league. That was with D.J. Reed and Michael Carter in their cornerback unit, and both look to be out this week. Still, they have one of the best in the game in Sauce Gardner. Quinnen Williams and Javon Kinlaw are a couple of highly drafted defensive tackles up front, while Will McDonald — tied for second in the NFL with seven sacks — and Micheal Clemons are their primary edge rushers. With starting safety Chuck Clark also out due to injury, career backup Ashtyn Davis will start. That’s a lot of absences to overcome for a secondary that’s only allowed one 300-yard passing game since the start of last season.

When the Jets have the ball

Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are reunited, but not with former Packers offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett in that role. The Jets have handed the play-calling duties to Todd Downing, who happened to work under Arthur Smith in Tennessee and replaced him there as offensive coordinator in 2021. Small world, isn’t it? Beyond Adams, Rodgers has 2022 top-10 pick Garrett Wilson at his disposal as well as another old Packers pal Allen Lazard. A perennially shaky offensive line brought in veteran tackles Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to be bookends this season, while the run game boasts a potent one-two punch in Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen. Hall carried 18 times for 113 yards their last time out. Rodgers is 2-1 in his career against the Steelers under Mike Tomlin.

Key matchups

Jets WR Davante Adams vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.

Adams might not face shadow coverage from Porter — Garrett Wilson is a problem of his own — but surely they’ll see each other at times on the outside as they did last season in Las Vegas. Porter said this week he tried to get Adams to engage in trash-talk in that game because it helps him get even more into the flow of a game. Keep an eye on these two jockeying and jawing throughout the night.

Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Steelers WR George Pickens

It would make much more sense for the Jets to have Gardner travel with Pickens everywhere he goes, given their injuries at cornerback and the Steelers’ lack of a viable No. 2 receiver. Pickens went on a Fox Sports show this week and was asked to give his top five current cornerbacks but did not name the two-time first-team All-Pro who was the defensive rookie of the year in their 2022 draft class. Last time these two played, Pickens had six catches for 102 yards but none against Gardner, who stayed on the left side of the defense.

Jets WR Allen Lazard vs. Steelers CB Beanie Bishop

Another WR-CB pairing to zoom in on, but this one likely will play out in the slot. Lazard is an unusually large inside target at 6-foot-5, 227 pounds. Bishop is a rookie who already has been singled-out by opposing offenses, and Lazard could be a major mismatch for the 5-9 undrafted free agent out of West Virginia.

Jets DT Quinnen Williams vs. Steelers C Ryan McCollum

Williams hasn’t been as productive the past two seasons since his 12 sacks in 2022 but he’s still a problem for a player making his first start since 2021. McCollum will have no shortage of plays where he needs to get the snap off accurately, then get hands on Williams before he can collapse the pocket and prevent Russell Wilson from stepping up to throw. The Steelers could look to double-team him early and often.

Jets LB Quincy Williams vs. Steelers RB Najee Harris

The other Williams, Quinnen’s older brother, doesn't get as much hype but was first-team All-Pro last season. He’s got a high motor and will sprint to the ball, much like Raiders linebacker Robert Spillane, who missed an opportunity to wrap-up Harris at the start of what turned out to be a 36-yard touchdown run. Harris could be primed for another big game, but Williams will play a significant role in trying to stop him.

To win, the Steelers must ...

Make sure it isn’t Aaron’s party. Rodgers just got his favorite target back and has arguably the best receiving duo in the league now, so you have to be ready for the Jets airin’ it out.

Welcome Russ with arms wide open. Wilson hasn’t been hit since the second preseason game, and if they can't mitigate the pass rush to give him time to throw, then what was the point of switching quarterbacks?

Put it all together back here. Last time the Steelers were at home, they started slow and finished slow, which they can't afford to do against a talented team with its back against the wall in prime time.

Prediction

Jets 24, Steelers 17: Aaron Rodgers takes advantage of his shiny new upgrade and Russell Wilson can’t keep pace behind an inexperienced center in the middle of an already shaky offensive line.