2024 bowl projections: Penn State seizes on chaos; Cal's loss costs Pitt in multiple ways

Adam Bittner / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Each week, the Post-Gazette compiles bowl projections for Pitt, Penn State and West Virginia from various national outlets. Here’s a look at the picture after the week concluding Saturday, Oct. 5.

Penn State

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: College Football Playoff No. 6 seed vs. Boise State (State College)

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: CFP No. 7 seed vs. Tennessee

Jerry Palm, CBS: CFP No. 9 seed vs. Iowa State (Ames)

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: CFP No. 6 seed vs. LSU

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: CFP No. 8 seed vs. Miami

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: CFP No. 8 seed vs. Tennessee

Chaos around the nation Saturday helped Penn State improve its stock significantly. No. 1 Alabama, No. 4 Tennessee, No. 9 Missouri, No. 10 Michigan and No. 11 USC all lost, putting the Nittany Lions in position to play at home in a first-round playoff game in most projections. This despite an underwhelming victory against UCLA at Beaver Stadium. For now, at least, underwhelming seems to be getting the job done compared to the alternative of taking a loss. The meat of the schedule now awaits, though. A long West Coast road trip to face the Trojans in Los Angeles awaits this week. Then after an off week, they travel to Wisconsin’s imposing Camp Randall Stadium before welcoming No. 2 Ohio State to Happy Valley for a game that could decide a Big Ten title berth. Coach James Franklin’s team probably needs to win at least two of those games to maintain its favorable position, so if this team has another gear, now is the time to find it.

Pitt

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Pop Tarts vs. Texas Tech (Orlando, Fla.)

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Pop Tarts vs. Utah

Jerry Palm, CBS: Pinstripe vs. Indiana (New York)

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Gator vs. Oklahoma (Jacksonville, Fla.)

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Holiday vs. Washington State

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: Duke’s Mayo vs. Rutgers (Charlotte)

The projected destinations and opponents just keep improving for the 5-0 Panthers. Pop Tarts in Orlando is the unspoken top destination for ACC members outside the playoff, so the fact that coach Pat Narduzzi’s team is earning projections for it can only be a good thing. But when do we start talking about a playoff path? How much more will it take for Pitt to enter the at-large conversation that 5-0 Penn State is in the thick of? Realistically, the answer is a while still. Cal’s failed upset bid against No. 6 Miami on Saturday was a double whammy of bad luck. Not only did it deny Pitt a chance to jump the Hurricanes in the perceived ACC pecking order, it also likely cost the Panthers a ranked matchup against the Golden Bears this week at Acrisure Stadium. As things stand now, Pitt won’t face a ranked opponent to help bolster its resume until Nov. 2 against Southern Methodist. That likely leaves more chaos as the Panthers’ only path into the national conversation through the end of the month.

West Virginia

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Texas vs. Oklahoma (Houston)

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Armed Forces vs. Army (Fort Worth, Texas)

Jerry Palm, CBS: Armed Forces vs. Tulane

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Liberty vs. Washington State (Memphis)

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Guaranteed Rate vs. Wisconsin (Phoenix)

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: Liberty vs. Kentucky

The Mountaineers have a winning record for the first time all season after beating Oklahoma State badly on Saturday and have built some margin for error into their postseason path. Now they can enter ranked matchups with No. 11 Iowa State and No. 18 Kansas State the next couple of weeks without too much pressure. Win, and they could assert themselves as legitimate Big 12 title contenders. Lose, and a manageable slate with no other ranked opponents waiting should allow them to win their way to bowl eligibility and a decent destination.