2024 bowl projections: Miami keeps frustrating Pitt's path to College Football Playoff conversation

By Adam Bittner / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Each week, the Post-Gazette compiles bowl projections for Pitt, Penn State and West Virginia from various national outlets. Here’s a look at the picture after the week concluding Saturday, Oct. 19.

Penn State

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: College Football Playoff No. 5 seed vs. Notre Dame (State College)

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: CFP No. 6 seed vs. Iowa State

Jerry Palm, CBS: CFP No. 7 seed vs. Clemson

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: CFP No. 6 seed vs. BYU

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: CFP No. 8 seed vs. Notre Dame

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: CFP No. 7 seed vs. LSU

It’s going to be hard for the Nittany Lions to move up in the national pecking order without a signature win or a seismic upset at this point. Oregon solidified its place as the Big Ten conference favorite with its win last week against No. 4 Ohio State. And therefore, it’s the team getting a first-round playoff bye in most of these projections. The best Penn State can hope for in that scenario is a No. 5 seed and a home game at Beaver Stadium. The matchup with No. 4 Ohio State in two weeks looms enormously for this reason. Win, and Penn State can make a plausible case to be a conference favorite in the month leading up to the Big Ten title game. Lose, and it won’t even have an inside track to appearing in the championship, let alone winning it. The Buckeyes, instead, would likely be poised to try to get revenge on the Ducks in Indianapolis as the conference runner up.

Pitt

Kyle Bonagura, ESPN: Pop Tarts vs. Texas Tech (Orlando, Fla.)

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Gator vs. Texas A&M (Jacksonville, Fla.)

Jerry Palm, CBS: Pinstripe vs. Wisconsin (New York)

Brett McMurphy, Action Network: Gator vs. Missouri

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Gator vs. Alabama

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: Pop Tarts vs. Iowa State

Another week, another frustratingly close win for No. 6 Miami to lock the Panthers mostly outside the playoff conversation. As long as the Hurricanes keep winning, they’re going to be seen nationally as the favorite in the ACC pretty much regardless of what Pitt does. That forces Pitt into the crowded at-large pool in which its resume simply doesn’t measure up with most of its toughest games yet to come. Upcoming opponents including 5-1 Syracuse this week, No. 22 SMU next week and No. 9 Clemson on Nov. 16 will give coach Pat Narduzzi and Co. a chance to change that perception over time. For now, though, the top 12 or so spots are too dense with teams owning signature wins for Pitt to merit consideration in a serious way.

West Virginia

Mark Schlabach, ESPN: Armed Forces vs. Army (Fort Worth, Texas)

Jerry Palm, CBS: Liberty vs. Vanderbilt (Memphis, Tenn.)

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: Liberty vs. Arkansas

Steven Lassan, Athlon Sports: Liberty vs. Vanderbilt

It wasn’t just that the Mountaineers lost on Saturday against Kansas State. It’s that they were blown out by the Wildcats by a 45-18 margin. It was enough to shake some projectors’ faith that coach Neal Brown and his squad can get to six wins and bowl eligibility in the rugged Big 12. The good news is that the schedule lightens up in theory with matchups against ranked Iowa State and Kansas State squads behind the Mountaineers. Upcoming opponents Baylor, UCF and Arizona all have losing records, as well. Cincinnati and Texas Tech are tough but beatable. There just isn’t much margin for error left at this point, so it makes sense that some projectors might have some doubts after such an ugly defeat at home.