Who's in? Looking at the WPIAL football playoff picture heading into final week

Mike White / Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Heading into the final weekend of the WPIAL football regular season, the race for playoff spots is “wilder” than ever.

That’s because of a new playoff system that the WPIAL instituted for this season. In the past, all playoff spots, including wild cards, were decided by conference records. If teams were deadlocked for a playoff spot or a wild card position, the WPIAL had a tiebreaker system to break the tie.

This season, the WPIAL will have 16 wild card teams spread out over five classifications (Class 6A doesn’t have a wild card). However, conference records or a tiebreaker system will not decide those wild card teams. The WPIAL football committee will gather on Saturday and select the wild card teams. In other words, the football committee’s opinion will put teams into the wild card spots.

This year’s WPIAL playoffs will have a total of 65 teams. Going into the season's final weekend, only 35 teams have clinched postseason spots. That’s a much lower number than in past years. For example, 52 teams had clinched heading into the final weekend last season.

Now let’s try to explain the WPIAL system that breaks ties. Only conference games count in breaking ties, and a tie between two teams is broken by head-to-head competition. Three-way ties are also broken by head-to-head results. If head-to-head can’t break a three-way tie, Gardner Points are then used to break the deadlock. Under the Gardner Points system, teams get 10 points for each win of a defeated conference opponent. In other words, if Team A beats Team B, and Team B has a 3-2 conference record, then Team A gets 30 points.

If the three teams are still tied after Gardner Points, the WPIAL’s point differential/tiebreaker system is applied, where teams get tiebreaker points based on comparative scores in conference games. Teams can earn up to a maximum of 10 points in a win and lose up to 10 in a loss. In other words, a 7-0 win is worth seven points, and a 28-14 loss is only minus 10 points.

It is important to realize that the system always reverts to head-to-head when possible to break ties among three or more teams. For example, if Team A, B and C are tied for second place, and Team A has the most tiebreaker points, it will get second place. Then, the winner of the game between B and C will get third place.

The WPIAL football committee meets Saturday and will release playoff pairings and seedings Saturday afternoon.

Here is a playoff picture for all conferences (records in parentheses are conference records):

CLASS 6A

The scoop: This classification has only one conference, and the top four teams qualify.

Quad-County West Conference: Central Catholic (5-0) has clinched first. North Allegheny (4-1) has clinched a spot and can finish second by beating Seneca Valley (3-2). Seneca Valley is in with a win or a Canon-McMillan (2-3) loss to Central Catholic. If Central Catholic beats Canon-McMillan, Mt. Lebanon (2-3) beats Norwin, and North Allegheny beats Seneca Valley, then Mt. Lebanon is third and Seneca Valley fourth. If, by chance, there would be a three-way tie for fourth among Canon-McMillan, Mt. Lebanon and Hempfield (2-4), then Mt. Lebanon would get fourth with more tiebreaker points.

CLASS 5A

The scoop: The top three teams in each of the three conferences qualify, and the WPIAL will select three wild card teams.

Allegheny Six: Upper St. Clair (4-0) is first. The winner of Bethel Park (3-1) vs. Peters Township (3-1) is second and the loser third.

Big East: Woodland Hills (5-0) is first, Penn-Trafford (4-1) second and Franklin Regional (3-2) third.

Northeast: Pine-Richland (4-0) is first. If Penn Hills (3-1) beats Plum, Penn Hills is second and North Hills (3-2) third. If Plum beats Penn Hills, then Plum, North Hills and Penn Hills tie for second. Tiebreaker points would break the tie for second, and head-to-head would then decide third. Penn Hills has 20 tiebreaker points, North Hills 12 and Plum 3.

CLASS 4A

The scoop: The top two teams in the three conferences qualify, and the WPIAL will select two wild card teams.

Big Six: Thomas Jefferson (4-0) is first. The winner of Belle Vernon (3-1) at Trinity (3-1) is second.

Greater Allegheny: McKeesport (4-0) is first and Mars (3-1) second.

Parkway: Montour (4-0) can finish first by beating West Allegheny (3-1). If Montour beats West Allegheny, Aliquippa (3-1) is second. If West Allegheny wins and Aliquippa beats Ambridge, there will be a three-way tie for first that will be broken by tiebreaker points. Second place will be decided by head-to-head among the two remaining teams. Montour has 31 tiebreaker points, Aliquippa 29 and West Allegheny 20.

CLASS 3A

The scoop: The top three teams in each of the three conferences qualify, and the WPIAL will select three wild card teams.

Allegheny Seven: Imani Christian (5-0), Deer Lakes (4-1) and Freeport (4-1) have all clinched. If Imani defeats Freeport, Imani is first, Deer Lakes second and Freeport third. If Freeport wins and Deer Lakes beats Burrell, then Imani Christian, Deer Lakes and Freeport will all tie for first. First place will be decided by tiebreaker points and second by head-to-head among the remaining two teams. Imani Christian has 42 tiebreaker points, Freeport 33 and Deer Lakes 18.

Interstate: Elizabeth Forward (4-0) has clinched a spot and can finish first by beating Mount Pleasant. If Elizabeth Forward wins and Southmoreland (3-1) beats Greensburg Salem (2-2), then Southmoreland is second and Mount Pleasant (3-1) third. If Elizabeth Forward and Greensburg Salem win, Elizabeth Forward will be first and there will be a three-way tie for second that will be broken by tiebreaker points. Third place will then be decided by head-to-head among the two remaining teams. If Mount Pleasant and Southmoreland win, a three-way tie for first will be broken by tiebreaker points. Second place would be determined by head-to-head among the two remaining teams. In tiebreaker points, Elizabeth Forward has 40, Southmoreland 20, Mount Pleasant 10 and Greensburg Salem 3.

Western Hills: Avonworth (5-0), Central Valley (5-1) and Beaver (4-1) have all clinched. If Avonworth beats Beaver, Avonworth is first, Central Valley second and Beaver third. If Beaver beats Avonworth, there will be a three-way tie for first that will be broken by tiebreaker points. In that case, Beaver can’t finish first because of tiebreaker points. Avonworth has 47, Central Valley 41 and Beaver 40. Avonworth finishes first if it wins or loses by six or less.

CLASS 2A

The scoop: The top three teams in each conference qualify, and the WPIAL will select four wild card teams.

Century: Seton LaSalle (5-0) is first, and Keystone Oaks (4-2) also has clinched. If Seton LaSalle beats Washington (3-2), Keystone Oaks is second. If Seton LaSalle wins and Waynesburg (3-2) beats Sto-Rox, Waynesburg is third. If Washington and Waynesburg win, there is a three-way tie for second. In that case, Washington would finish second with more Gardner Points for defeating Seton LaSalle. Keystone Oaks would then be third.

Allegheny: South Park (5-0) is first. The winner of South Allegheny (4-1) vs. Steel Valley (4-1) is second and the loser third.

Midwestern: Ellwood City (6-0) is first. Western Beaver (5-1) has clinched second, even if it loses to Freedom. The winner of Riverside (4-2) vs. Mohawk (4-2) is third.

CLASS 1A

The scoop: This classification has four conferences, and the top three teams in each conference qualify. The WPIAL will select four wild card teams.

Big 7: Neshannock (5-0) and Laurel (5-0) have clinched and play for first and second place. The winner of South Side (3-2) at Rochester (3-2) is third.

Black Hills: Fort Cherry (5-0) is first, and Bishop Canevin (4-1) is second. The winner of Monessen (3-2) and Cornell (3-2) is third.

Eastern: Clairton (6-0) is first. The winner of Greensburg Central Catholic (5-1) vs. Leechburg (5-1) is second and the loser third.

Tri-County South: Jefferson-Morgan (6-0) plays California (6-0) for the conference title and the loser is second. If Bentworth (3-3) beats Avella, Carmichaels (3-3) defeats Mapletown and West Greene (3-3) defeats Beth-Center, then Bentworth, Carmichaels and West Greene finish in a tie for third, and the deadlock will be broken by tiebreaker points. Benworth has 7 tiebreaker points, Carmichaels 0 and West Greene minus-7. Avella (2-4) can’t qualify.